Brazilection 2014: A first glimpse at a new race

In a first poll after the death of Presidential candidate Eduardo Campos his likely replacement Marina Silva is shaking up the field reports NoSeMancha’s Brazilian election analyst João Schlüter. 

A new face in the race

A new face in the race

Only a day after the remains of Eduardo Campos were laid to rest in a giant funeral in Recife on Sunday, August 17th, Datafoha came out with a new poll including the likely new candidate Marina Silva. 

The results were much along the line with what I expected last week.

In a first round without Campos or Marina, incumbent Dilma Rousseff (PT) and her remaining rival Aécio Neves (PSDB) were both up 5 percentage points relative to their July poll (36 to 41 and 20 to 25 percent respectively). However, given the still large number of blank, invalid and undecided voters in this scenario (25 percent), Dilma would win in the first round with an absolute majority of the valid vote (55 percent).

Marina could win second in the first and first in the second round

With Marina in the race by contrast, Dilma’s first round vote remains at 36 percent, Aécio at 20 (both unchanged from July), yet Marina is able to add considerably to the vote of Eduardo Campos, multiplying his 8 percent to 21!. She does this by drawing in blanks and undecided voters, forcing Dilma into a runoff (with 43 percent of the valid vote).

Fewer pieces – more pie for Dilma (numbers do not sum to 100 as blanks, invalids and undecided voters are not included)

The real surprise is that according to this result, Marina would be ahead of Aécio who would hence miss the runoff! Now, the 1 point difference between the two opposition candidates is very small and well within the margin of error (2 percentage points either way). But it means that if Marina runs, Aécio, will have to fight to secure second place.

Unsurprisingly, Aécio’s spokespeople were quick to state that Marina is has peaked already and that their candidate will leave her behind as the vote draws closer.

Dilma the favorite no more? 

In the second round, there was another surprise. While Dilma keeps beating Aécio (with a larger margin than in July and outside the margin of error 47 to 39), Marina is ahead of the incumbent (but barely outside the margin of error 47 to 43 percent).

This confirms my view that a “third way” candidate such as Marina has a better chance at beating Dilma than does the traditional opposition of the PSDB (Aécio).

Marina making all the difference

Marina making all the difference

Of course this poll should be taken with grains of salt larger than those on your picanha. Marina is not yet an official candidate and the dramatic events of last week might give her a short term sympathy  boost that wears of quickly.

All we know at this point is that the race appears wide open.

She's winning - at least for the moment.

She’s winning – at least for the moment.

 

 

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2 Responses to Brazilection 2014: A first glimpse at a new race

  1. davidpedigo says:

    Hi there! Very interesting read. Just thought I’d give you a heads up that Marina and Aecio’s colors are switched in the second pie chart. Also, “is” should be “his” in paragraph 3, line 3 and there is an extra “is” in paragraph 5, line 2. Feel free to delete this comment once you notice the changes, I don’t want to “manchar” the professional look of your blog!

  2. Thanks Davidpedigo! The editor in chief is on vacation so those errors escaped us. I fixed them now. Also, “picanha” (the popular Brazilian churrasco beef cut) had been autocorrected to “piranha” (the fish) at the end.

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